Prediction

There's a ton of predictions out there, most of which are just hot air. I posted Karl Rove's yesterday because seeing Rove predict a Democratic victory over his delusional "Conservative majority for a generation" was worth it.

Nate Silver, from www.fivethirtyeight.com, is one of the best pollsters in my opinion. He uses complex mathematical models that I won't even try to explain. Long story short, his projection: Obama 349 Electoral Votes, McCain 189 Electoral Votes.

Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically -- for instance, assigns North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time -- comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes.